Xbox’s Game Pass Targets Miss the Mark as Ambitious 2026 Goals Fall Short

Pinpointing a single cause for where Xbox finds itself right now is hard, but one factor stands out as a major driver of what went wrong: Game Pass. Looking ahead, the biggest share of the blame may land on Xbox’s overly optimistic expectations for what the subscription service would eventually become.

Xbox Confirms Studio Shake-Up and Layoffs

On Monday, Xbox finally delivered the kind of confirmation the industry had been waiting to see. The company’s plans mean the future of five studios is now uncertain, and thousands of Xbox employees have already lost their jobs, with additional layoffs still expected.

Game Pass Subscriber Numbers Fall Far Short of Predictions

After the studio sale and layoff plans were confirmed, details surfaced around Game Pass’s current reach. Around 30 million people are reportedly subscribed to the service. The unsettling part isn’t just that the number exists—it’s how dramatically it misses what Xbox expected by this point.

Call of Duty has always been a major draw, but not in the way Xbox likely hoped once it arrived inside Game Pass.

During the Activision Blizzard acquisition, legal materials shared at the time included Xbox’s own projection for Game Pass growth. Those documents claimed the company expected 77 million subscribers by now. That figure is massive—and it also highlights how out of touch Xbox’s leadership was with what the Activision deal would actually do for the brand.

Subscriptions Are Reportedly Down, Not Just Behind

Game Pass isn’t only short of where Xbox wanted it to be by 2026; it’s reportedly moving in the wrong direction as well. The current total sits at less than 40% of the ambitious target Xbox set. Even more concerning, if the reported 30 million subscriber figure is correct, Game Pass subscriptions have dropped since Xbox last shared official numbers.

Previously, the subscription count was reported at 34 million. This newer report claims that number has fallen by up to four million. While it isn’t a direct Xbox update, Xbox chief Matthew Ball has previously said that millions left Game Pass after the service’s top tier nearly doubled in price.

Xbox has since reduced Game Pass pricing, but only back part of the way—prices have not returned to their earlier levels.

What Changes Are Coming to Game Pass Next

The situation for Game Pass going forward remains unclear, especially for day-one access to major releases. Xbox-published games will no longer be included on day one. Call of Duty titles will also follow a delayed schedule: they will be added to Ultimate a year after release.

There’s also uncertainty around whether certain headline games will land immediately. State of Decay 3, for example, doesn’t appear to have a confirmed day-one spot for Game Pass. That lack of certainty is notable because developer Undead Labs is one of the five studios caught up in this week’s “Xbox reset.”