How Manchester City Sanctions Could Reshape the Premier League

Manchester City’s rise under Abu Dhabi ownership is being reconsidered through a hypothetical Premier League timeline following an independent commission’s September 2026 finding that the club committed 114 spending-rule breaches. City have appealed and continue to deny wrongdoing, but the prospect of sanctions ranging from a major points deduction to relegation or expulsion has prompted a wider question: how differently English and European football might have developed without City’s vast investment.

Key takeaways

• Sheikh Mansour’s Abu Dhabi United Group bought City for about £200 million on 1 September 2008.
• The commission found that sponsorship income had been overstated by more than £830 million between 2009 and 2018.
• City won 26 trophies during the ownership era, including eight Premier League championships and the Champions League.
• In the imagined alternative, Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal take the league titles City won.
• Pep Guardiola is envisaged as Paris Saint-Germain manager from 2016 before taking charge of Arsenal in 2021.
• Erling Haaland is projected to join Guardiola at Arsenal rather than move to Manchester City.

A changed domestic order without Manchester City’s spending

ADUG’s 2008 takeover rescued City at a time when Thaksin Shinawatra’s frozen assets in Thailand left the club struggling to fund daily operations. In reality, the new ownership transformed the club’s position: more than £3 billion, also put at €3.64 billion in total transfer expenditure, brought 123 signings and a trophy haul of eight Premier League titles, four FA Cups, seven League Cups, four Community Shields, the Champions League, UEFA Super Cup and Club World Cup.

The commission’s ruling centred on Premier League financial regulations and sponsorship figures over a nine-year span. While City’s appeal remains ongoing, the alternative scenario assumes that the club had remained financially compliant and operated with more limited backing, avoiding collapse but never becoming the division’s dominant force.

That would remove the 2011-12 finale from the league’s defining moments. Sergio Agüero would not have arrived from Atlético Madrid for £35 million, meaning his stoppage-time winner against Queens Park Rangers would never have decided the title. Manchester United, who finished level on 89 points but behind City on goal difference, would instead become champions. Sir Alex Ferguson would then finish his career with 14 English league titles, adding the following season’s championship before retiring in 2013.

Liverpool would take the 2013-14 crown, with Steven Gerrard’s slip against Chelsea no longer proving decisive. Brendan Rodgers would therefore deliver a league title, although Jürgen Klopp would still be appointed in 2015 after Rodgers’ eventual decline. Chelsea’s championships under José Mourinho and Antonio Conte, along with Leicester City’s remarkable 2015-16 success, would remain intact in this version of events.

Manchester United would also inherit the 2017-18 title, rather than City’s record-breaking 100-point campaign. José Mourinho would gain another winners’ medal, while the final-day victory over Southampton sealed by Gabriel Jesus would not form part of City history.

In the subsequent period, Klopp’s Liverpool would win consecutive league titles in 2018-19 and 2019-20, then add a further crown in 2021-22. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer would lead United to the 2020-21 title, improving his standing without necessarily solving the club’s long-running post-Ferguson problems. Arsenal, narrowly behind City in both 2022-23 and 2023-24 in reality, would instead win those campaigns comfortably and begin their own extended spell at the top.

City’s absence as a purchasing force would also alter several rivals’ trajectories. Carlos Tevez would complete his permanent move to United in 2009 following his two-year loan, rather than leave for £25.5 million and wages in excess of £200,000 a week. His partnership with Wayne Rooney would soften the loss of Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid for £80 million and help Ferguson’s side collect two more titles before his retirement.

Arsenal would retain Emmanuel Adebayor, Kolo Touré, Samir Nasri, Gaël Clichy and Bacary Sagna rather than lose them to City. Robin van Persie would still join United, creating a formidable front line with Rooney and Tevez, but Arsenal’s stronger squad would end the trophy drought that lasted from 2005 to 2014. Arsène Wenger’s tenure would consequently be viewed more warmly, with additional domestic cup wins.

Tottenham would benefit from more regular Champions League qualification after avoiding several close misses. Gareth Bale would stay for two more years, helping Spurs win the FA Cup in 2013 before Real Madrid paid more than €100 million for him in 2015. Everton would keep Joleon Lescott for another five seasons, while Aston Villa would retain Gareth Barry and avoid the sharp decline that followed his departure. Newcastle United would still be acquired by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund in 2021, but would lack a City-style example for accelerated investment and remain a mid-table side rather than a European challenger.

Guardiola, the transfer market and a more modest City

The biggest managerial change in this imagined landscape concerns Guardiola. After winning three La Liga titles, two Champions Leagues, two Copas del Rey, two UEFA Super Cups and two Club World Cups at Barcelona — including six trophies in 2011 — he spent a year away from the game before joining Bayern Munich in 2013. Seven trophies followed in four seasons in Germany.

Without City’s wealth, its connection to former Barcelona executives Ferran Soriano and Txiki Begiristain, or an elite squad-building project, Guardiola would not be expected to take the Etihad job in 2016. Instead, he would take another year out after Bayern and succeed Unai Emery at PSG.

At PSG, Guardiola would inherit Neymar after the Brazilian’s €222 million world-record move from Barcelona in 2017 and then Kylian Mbappé, signed from Monaco for €180 million a year later. Lionel Messi would not join him in Paris, but the scenario envisages Guardiola winning two Champions Leagues, disrupting the European supremacy otherwise enjoyed by Real Madrid and Liverpool, and helping Neymar claim the Ballon d’Or. He would leave in 2020 after four years, consistent with his record of not remaining at one club beyond that period, then sit out the disrupted COVID-19 campaign.

His return to England would arrive in 2021. United would be reluctant to replace title-winning Solskjaer, Chelsea would be considered too unstable and Liverpool would be firmly established under Klopp. Arsenal, searching for a successor to Wenger after his 2018 departure, would become the natural fit. Guardiola’s possession-based approach would align with Arsenal’s traditions, and the 2022-23 league title would be the starting point for domestic success and a long-awaited European breakthrough.

Mikel Arteta’s path would change with him. Rather than serve as Guardiola’s assistant at City from 2016 to 2019, he would follow him to Paris after turning down a role on Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham staff and an opportunity within Arsenal’s academy. When Guardiola exited PSG in 2020, Arteta would be promoted to preserve continuity and remain in charge long enough to compete in Europe against his former manager.

Vincent Kompany would leave City for Borussia Dortmund in 2013, partnering Mats Hummels in central defence before returning to Anderlecht to finish his playing career. Dortmund would then appoint him as manager in 2021. Without Guardiola’s influence, his coaching identity would be more intense and Bundesliga-inspired rather than based on City’s positional game.

Luis Enrique, meanwhile, would step down as Spain coach after a Euro 2020 semi-final defeat and return to Barcelona in 2021 rather than take the PSG position. He would appoint Enzo Maresca as his assistant, with Maresca learning a more expansive Barcelona-based possession style before replacing Ange Postecoglou at Tottenham in 2025.

The player market would be reshaped across the leading clubs. David Silva would join Chelsea in 2010 to play alongside Frank Lampard and Michael Essien, while Yaya Touré would reunite with his brother Kolo at Arsenal after his Barcelona relationship with Guardiola deteriorated. Agüero would move to Juventus because Atlético would refuse to sell to Real Madrid, score more than 100 goals in four years in Italy, and then join Madrid for €80 million. Juventus would use the fee to buy Paulo Dybala from Palermo.

Fernandinho would still arrive at City from Shakhtar Donetsk for £34 million in 2013, but move to Tottenham in 2015 after Bale’s delayed Madrid sale. Raheem Sterling would stay at Liverpool following the 2013-14 title, sign a lucrative new deal under Rodgers and only later move to Chelsea. Kevin De Bruyne would still be City’s £55 million record purchase in 2015 after his difficult first Chelsea spell, but would leave after only a few seasons when a European heavyweight made a major offer.

Elsewhere, Chelsea would take John Stones from Everton and make him John Terry’s long-term successor following Terry’s 2017 retirement. Kyle Walker would also choose Chelsea, thriving as a wing-back under Conte. Aymeric Laporte would join Guardiola’s Barcelona rather than replace Clément Lenglet, while Bernardo Silva would move to Barcelona as Andrés Iniesta’s successor. That would prevent Barcelona spending €40 million on Paulinho and €120 million on Philippe Coutinho.

Bayern Munich would activate Rodri’s €70 million Atlético Madrid release clause in 2019 as preparation for Thiago Alcântara’s departure a year later. United would buy Rúben Dias in 2020 because doubts persisted over Victor Lindelöf alongside Harry Maguire. They would then sign Jack Grealish for £100 million in 2021, leaving Jadon Sancho elsewhere; Grealish’s move would prove no more successful than Sancho’s real-life United stint.

Haaland’s €60 million Dortmund release clause would create a major contest in 2022, but Arsenal would prevail by offering him the chance to work under Guardiola. It would be a decisive addition to the Arsenal side beginning its title-winning run.

City itself would settle into a far less glamorous existence, generally finishing between fifth and 10th. The club could occasionally qualify for the Champions League and make cup runs, but would need to sell leading players to remain within Profit and Sustainability rules. Its development would resemble a well-run challenger rather than a superclub.

Academy graduates would assume greater importance. Micah Richards would still spend a decade as a key first-team player, while Shaun Wright-Phillips’ second spell would last longer and secure his status as a club hero. Kieran Trippier and Dedryck Boyata, whose routes to regular football were blocked in reality, would have meaningful City careers. Cole Palmer, who debuted in 2020, and Rico Lewis, who followed in 2022, would receive more sustained opportunities; Lewis would establish himself as a conventional right-back and Palmer would spend longer showcasing his attacking ability before a later departure.

There would be little stability in the dugout. Robert Martínez would arrive after his adventurous work at Wigan Athletic, André Villas-Boas would receive a final Premier League opportunity following difficult spells at Chelsea and Tottenham, and Alan Pardew would steady the club between 2015 and 2017. Eddie Howe would then take charge for a longer period and deliver a League Cup in 2019.

It is a considerably smaller vision of City than the club that accumulated titles under Guardiola and attracted many of the game’s finest players. Yet for supporters facing the possibility of severe punishment after the commission’s decision, a stable mid-table club with occasional European football and a productive academy may appear preferable to the consequences now being considered.