Analyst Says Sony’s 2028 Disc Shutdown Won’t Be Stopped by Backlash

As PlayStation prepares to end the production of physical game discs in 2028, fans are pushing back harder than usual—enough that even subscription churn has become part of the protest. One prominent games-industry analyst argues the backlash won’t meaningfully change Sony’s course, claiming the company’s business logic is stronger than whatever public frustration builds online. PlayStation has effectively become the first major console platform holder to commit to a fully digital future, and the reaction from players has been anything but warm.

Sony’s plan to stop making physical PlayStation discs after January 2028 has quickly turned into one of the most divisive corporate moves it has faced in years. Across social media, players have said they feel blindsided, and some high-profile developers have echoed the sentiment. Creators associated with major releases like Baldur’s Gate 3 and Animal Well have weighed in as well, with comments suggesting that physical releases were part of what drew them to making games in the first place. More recently, PlayStation owners have coordinated unsubscribing from PS Plus in large numbers, hoping the membership drop will force a rethink and bring discs back.

Even with all the anger, Sony’s decision comes with an important caveat: it’s not a hard, immediate cutoff with no flexibility at all, which is why some observers describe it as having an “asterisk” attached rather than being a simple switch-flip.

Analyst Predicts PS Plus Backlash Won’t Stop Sony

Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of games consultancy Kantan Games, recently discussed the protests and believes Sony will ride out the public-relations wave without changing direction. In his view, the company can absorb the impact and still continue executing its plan. Toto’s argument is that even if 500,000 people—out of Sony’s reported 120 million subscribers—cancel their PS Plus memberships, that would only represent about 1% of the total base, which he says is unlikely to force the company’s hand. He also points out that while physical discs have been part of gaming since the beginning, digital sales now dominate, and digital margins remain too attractive for Sony to abandon the model it’s already chosen.

From an economic standpoint, Toto frames it as a straightforward equation: digital distribution “just makes too much sense,” particularly for platform holders. In other words, even if fans vote with their wallets, the math for Sony still favors going fully digital.

Although the uproar continues, the topic isn’t just being discussed by analysts. The idea that 2028’s loss of physical PlayStation games is disappointing but financially reasonable is echoed elsewhere in the industry, including from executives who have direct experience with pricing, publishing, and margins.

What Digital vs. Physical Could Mean for Studios

Another voice has joined the debate: Lords of the Fallen 2 CEO Marek Tyminski. He has publicly argued that making GTA 6 digital-only is unfair to smaller studios that still want the option to support physical releases. His reasoning is that smaller teams often operate with slimmer margins, making it harder for them to cover the costs of a physical launch—costs that larger publishers can absorb more easily. Tyminski and Toto have both offered numbers about what studios and publishers can potentially earn from digital versus physical releases.

Tyninski claims studios may earn roughly $26 per unit, while Toto says Sony’s take would include a 15% licensing fee cut from every third-party game it sells. When the comparison shifts to digital sales, Tyminski says the studio’s top-end takeaway could be about $49 per digital sale, and Toto adds that Sony would take around a 30% cut from the digital licensing of a third-party title. The math looks even more favorable for Sony when it comes to first-party exclusives, because a digital-only game produced by Sony would effectively be a 100% profit scenario for the company rather than a third-party revenue share.

That difference helps explain why a platform holder looking to maximize profitability would lean into digital-only distribution. It also hints at how the impact on players may be “managed” as the industry moves on—especially as future releases, such as Saros, begin to circulate in conversations tied to weak sales performance.

Tyminski’s and Toto’s comments land on a similar conclusion: with margins tightening and production expenses continuing to rise, the shift away from discs might have been increasingly inevitable. Toto’s final remarks suggest Sony’s current profit margins have been too thin for too long, leading the company to feel it has to act now. In a marketplace where the price of technology keeps climbing and development costs don’t slow down, digital distribution becomes the option that fits the financial reality publishers are dealing with.

GTA 6 is also important to the wider trend: it became the first major AAA title to commit to digital-only at an $80 price point. That move could have encouraged other publishers to follow, potentially leaving Sony as the first platform holder to officially plant its flag for a digital console future. Even so, the shift hasn’t been universally accepted—there have been attempts to stay digital while still responding to player pressure. Alan Wake 2, for instance, tried a strictly digital approach but ultimately failed to hold that line after fan backlash.

Still, with GTA 6 and Sony now leading the way, it’s looking increasingly likely that a digital-first console era is coming—“for better or worse,” as the debate now frames it.